Arthur E. Berman, Petroleum Engineer, studied 9,100 of 15,000 Barnett Shale wells and found that less than 6% met economic needs per his “Eye of the Storm” presentation. This was using pricing/production data from 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 1 when the price for natural gas was from $5-$12 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) than what it is NOW under $3.
But don’t get too comfortable thinking the drillers won’t be back to finish what they started in the Barnett Shale..in the mature gas play…in the dry gas.
Berman said on 2/21/16 that the price of natural going up is inevitable.
He cites factors such as :
- decline in production from drillers not starting new jobs,
- the decline in conventional wells,
- the hyperbolic production decline curves of existing UNconventional (shale) wells,
- coupled with the exporting of LNG (by mid-2017) means…
“It will take 15 bcfd of new shale gas production in 2016 to keep U.S. production flat.
Shale gas production replacement and growth for 2015 were 14.5 bcfd, down from almost 18 bcfd in 2014. It will be difficult to match 14.5 bcfd in 2016 because shale gas production has been falling 0.72 bcfd (~2.2 bcfd annualized) for the last 4 months of data (Figure 4)“.
Last November OilPrice.com reported. “The Haynesville Shale (gas) play needs $6.50 (per thousand cubic feet) gas prices to break even”. This gives us here in the Barnett shale some idea about how high the price of natural gas needs to get before “THEY’RE BAAAACK”.
They will AGAIN take advantage of our loop-holed gas well drilling ordinances that haved failed in being protective of public health.
In January Ft.com reported, “The 60 leading US independent oil and gas companies have total net debt of $206bn, from about $100bn at the end of 2006. As of September, about a dozen had debts that were more than 20 times their earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation”.
If we have a shortage by October (per EIA), and we cannot get out of these twenty year export contracts…..
DOES ANYBODY SMELL A GOVERNMENT BAILOUT COMING? We warned them not to approve those fracking LNG exports!
We have to get off of NATURAL GAS now before the methane leaks galore do us in with run away climate change.
VOTE 4 BERNIE is our only hope.